Decision Complexity Increases - Financial Markets

250929 - complexity of forecasting the impact of AI on jobs Is and could impact confidence in hiring the next employee.

250917 - complexity of forecasting inflation The knowledge that a recent Fed appointee expressed the desire for 5 more cuts before the end of the year, increases the complexity of forecasting inflation when a new Fed Chair is imported, as it implies a probably aggressive cut strategy at that time.

259017 - downside risks to employment/labor markets In recent months, there has been more chatter about the downside risks to employment, and therefore consumer spending, which would be a headwind to inflation, and a potential offset to the longer term impacts of tariff (still an unknown). The markets and Fed giving more consideration of labor markets, and the observation of opposing forces, is leading some to suggest the direction of the Fed is unclear.

Geopolitics

The country with the best economy, all things equal, will have the best military.

Taken to an extreme: there are no political policies only military strategies.

NVIDIA invests in Intel How much of this deal was driven by geopolitics?

Information Advantage

In the information age, your competitive advantage comes from processing the right data faster than your competition.

Three types of information constraints:

Rate constrained Too slow to process

Complexity constrained Too complex to understand/compute

Capacity constrained Too much volume

Master your information, master your market.

Long-term technology watch list

Quantum computing - game-changing disruption. Unclear to most observations when this wave of innovation will start having and impact.

Smart glasses - Past failures, renewed market chatter and attempts, impact is unclear. Meta product management says the real question is "What is the future of computing" (Shows off new $800 glasses 250918).

Nuclear energy - Despite concerns holding back for decades, rejuvenated interest, especially given AI demands. Construction and commissioning timelines arae long.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) - LLM technology has disappointed on the AGI front, which may account in part for the practical application of agents for getting things done. Unclear when true human and super-human intelligence will be a reality.

Robots - Regulatory and cultural headwinds, but progress is occurring, and investment is strong.

Drones - The dynamics for drones are different than humanoid robots, and drones have already had a huge impact. Drones are just starting to revolutionize warfare, with more to come. In terms of a really big umbrella, USVs, AUVs, and similar may also be considered under this category. Whether in warfare, science, or other civil applications, automated non-humanoid robots are likely to have significant impact.

Energy - Ok, not a single technology per se, but energy runs the world in a meaningful way. There is demand for energy in general, there is demand for Earth healthy energy, and very specifically there is monster demand for AI energy. Above the possible nuclear renaissance is mentioned. The price/performance improvements for solar has put it ahead of numerous Earth friendly energy platforms. Energy is, in general, is likely to be an area of significant innovation.

Common investing sayings

Don't fight the fed

Don't fight the tape

AI Impacts

World without work Already there are huge layoffs and a tough job market. While some of this is a correction for promiscuous hiring during good times, people are already wondering what is going on. While it is hard to imagine a world without work, it is already been speculated. Is there anything AI and AI-enabled robots won't be able to do better and cheaper than humans? We do not know what the future of work and human contribution will be, but it is probable significant changes are coming.

World without disease Is it more likely or less likely that AI will unlock the key to addressing disease like cancer? More likely. Large compute clusters with "infinite" knowledge can combine and test ideas at a rapid rate compared to a human. Through intelligence or brute force, AI is likely to discover things that humans do not.

Education Even before AI, the winds of change were sweeping through the learning process and education institutions. With LLMs become increasingly better answer engines, more changes seem likely. Will education institutions disappear or change missions? We can probably expect a little of each.

What's in a saying? Execution Beats Strategy

A mediocre strategy executed brilliantly outperforms a brilliant strategy executed poorly.

The execution framework:

Clarity - Everyone knows what to do

Capability - Everyone can do what's needed

Commitment - Everyone wants to succeed

Consistency - Everyone does it the same way

Are you Strategy constrained or Execution constrained?